Pakistan Unlikely To Feel Immediate Impact; India Aims For Long-Term Implications News24 –

In immediate response to the Pahalgam terror attack, which killed 26 tourists in Kashmir, India has taken bold steps against Pakistan. Among these actions, the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty(IWT) is considered a significant move, as Pakistan is likely to be more affected. The treaty governs the use and distribution of water from the Indus River and its tributaries, which are crucial for Pakistan, supplying 80% of the country’s drinking water and supporting its agricultural sector. 93% of the water from the Indus is used for irrigation, powering the country’s agricultural backbone. The Indus River system contributes nearly 25% to Pakistan’s GDP and sustains the cultivation of key crops such as wheat, rice, sugarcane, and cotton. Hence, India’s move to suspend the treaty should surely impact. But will this treaty suspension impact Pakistan immediately? Here’s what experts say.

Will It Impact Immediately

Well, according to experts, the impact will not be felt in Pakistan. This is because India presently doesn’t have the infrastructure to stop the flow of water or divert it for its use from the Indus rivers into Pakistan. India would need to take concrete steps to alter the flow or management of the Indus River system’s western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab), which are allocated primarily to Pakistan under the IWT. At most, India can cut water flows by 10-15%.

To make this practical, India should build large-scale dams or storage facilities on the Indus, Jhelum, or Chenab to control or divert water flows before they reach Pakistan. Such projects could reduce the volume of water available to Pakistan, affecting its agriculture and hydropower. But experts say that the treaty restricts India from building reservoir dams on the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. India is allowed under the IWT to build run-of-the-river hydroelectric projects on the western rivers.

Treaty Was Always On Cards But Ruled Out Every Time

Former Ambassador to the UN, T.P. Sreenivasan, who also previously served on the National Security Advisory Board, said: “From the early days of our bilateral relationship, whenever tensions have arisen, the Indus Water Treaty has often been among the first issues considered for action. However, each time, the idea of suspending or altering the treaty has been ruled out, primarily because it benefits both countries and directly impacts millions of lives. Both sides have shown reluctance to tamper with it for this reason.” Moreover, the treaty isn’t purely bilateral as it is backed by the World Bank.

Suspending the treaty means India may not adhere to these restrictions and begin constructing reservoir dams to plug the water flow.