Exit polls released on Tuesday evening indicated a likely clear win for the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections. Led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United), the alliance is projected to perform significantly better than its 43-seat tally from the previous polls.
Several surveys also suggested a gender divide in voting patterns, with more women supporting the NDA, while men leaned slightly toward the Opposition INDIA bloc. As per P-Marq’s data, 45% of women voted for the NDA compared to 40% of men, whereas 41% of men and 39% of women backed the INDIA bloc.
Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana
Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, leading the NDA in Bihar, has based much of his campaign on welfare programs for women. His government recently launched the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana, under which more than two crore women received ₹10,000 each directly in their bank accounts to promote financial independence and family stability.
Although many women stayed quiet during the campaign, they turned out in large numbers to vote in the first phase and are again expected to play a key role in deciding the final result.
To maintain this strong support, the NDA has focused its election strategy on women’s welfare and empowerment, highlighting existing schemes and promising new ones if it returns to power. The alliance has also reminded voters of the so-called “Jungle Raj” during the RJD’s rule, claiming that women felt unsafe then, to discourage them from supporting the opposition’s Mahagathbandhan.
High Voter Turnout and Clear Edge for NDA
The exit poll results were released soon after voting concluded for the second and final phase of the Bihar Assembly elections on Tuesday evening. This phase covered the remaining 122 of the 243 constituencies, recording a remarkable voter turnout of 69%, higher than the 65.08% turnout seen in the first phase held on November 6 across 121 seats. The Election Commission had earlier noted that the phase one turnout was the highest ever in Bihar’s electoral history since the first state elections in 1951–52. The counting of votes will take place on Friday.
In the 2020 Assembly elections, the battle between the two main alliances, the NDA, including the BJP, JDU, and smaller partners, and the INDIA bloc (Mahagathbandhan), comprising the RJD, Congress, and Left parties, was extremely tight, with just about 13,000 votes separating them. However, this time, exit polls suggest a clear edge for the NDA, with the INDIA bloc trailing significantly behind.
In the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections, the BJP and JDU each contested 101 seats. Other NDA allies included Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), which contested 29 seats, and two smaller allies, Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha and Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Morcha, contesting six seats each.
In the 2020 elections, the RJD was the single largest party with 75 seats, followed by the BJP with 74, JDU with 43, and Congress with 19. The CPI(ML) Liberation had a strong performance, winning 12 of the 19 seats it contested as part of the Mahagathbandhan.
Exit polls are based on voter interviews conducted right after polling and often differ from the final election results.