Tamil Nadu Opposition Formation NDA Facing Cracks In The Run Up To General Elections To Assembly Due Next Year News24 –

In the run up to the assembly elections, Tamil Nadu political theatre is heating up with pre-poll realignments of political forces that appear, on the surface, as favourable to the ruling DMK regime.

Just when Chief Minister MK Stalin is readying for fighting for re-election in poll-bound Tamil Nadu in May next year, he is riding anti-incumbency but is blessed with the prospects of anti-DMK votes getting split in different directions.

Firstly, the DMK has its own strong vote bank, along with its allies of roughly 40 percent and that may not go anywhere. It is the anti-DMK vote that is getting split, if we go by the 2021 assembly election results where AIADMK and BJP led NDA fought as separate entities each taking away a portion of anti-DMK votes.

But, the AIADMK is no longer the AIADMK that it was under Jayalalithaa, and current chief of the party, former Chief Minister Edappadi Palaniswamy could garner around 20 precent vote share in the previous assembly elections. This time around, though AIADMK is in an alliance with the BJP, his resistance to any move to unite different factions and breakaway leaders is considerably weakening the NDA alliance, political analyst Prof Ramu Manivannan opines.

In a conversation with News24, he said, even the emergence of film actor Vijay would also help the DMK to the extent that he will cut into anti-DMK vote. Yes, Vijay who appeals to the youth can eat up DMK votes too, but since he will attract anti-DMK votes too will harm the opposition NDA grouping as well. In balance, the DMK may not be unduly worried about Vijay till he actually forms a coalition of sorts and has political cadre that can translate his popularity on the ground into concrete votes, Prof Manivannan said.

Meanwhile, splinter breakaway leaders of AIADMK, like TTV Dhinakaran, nephew of Sasikala, close companion of Jayalalithaa who nearly became the chief minister and head of AIADMK before being jailed on corruption charges, declared a breaking away from the NDA fold.

On Wednesday, Dhinakaran, who has been trying to make amends and get closer to AIADMK has been rebuffed by AIADMK supremo Palaniswamy, who is resisting all pressures to accommodate former party men who left or were ousted. Prominent among them is former Chief Minister O Pannerselvam, who also has pockets of influence in different areas.

While announcing his decision to walk out of NDA in Tamil Nadu, Dhinakaran who leads a party called Amma Munnetra Makkal Kaghagam said, “AMMK had waited long enough for a patch-up within the AIADMK but decided to move on. We aimed to bring Amma’s (J Jayalalithaa) cadres together, when we discovered that there is no chance, AMMK has decided to go.”

He said, “We unconditionally joined the NDA for Modi to become Prime Minister again. But now it is the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections which is going to pave the fate of the state.”

Trouble for AIADMK chief Palaniswamy appears to be mounting as a senior AIADMK leader C. Sengottiaiyan is also said to be smarting and preparing to quit the party. “Let us see what he does tomorrow,” Dhinakaran said and lamented that even efforts of union Home Minister Amit Shah to unite all AIADMK factions appeared to have failed.

The senior AIADMK leader is meeting with his supporters on Friday and is expected to reveal his future plan of action.

Said GC Shekhar, another political analyst, “it appears now that smaller parties are quitting the NDA fold, and the local media is having a field day gleefully reporting it as NDA in big trouble.But it more appears like a move directed by the BJP to pressurise AIADMK chief Edapaddi to accommodate others, and in a few months things may change.”

But on the arrival of film star turned politician, Vijay, Shekhar too expected him to hurt the chances of NDA, as things stand today. He will surely split the anti-DMK votes. “And since DMK was anyway ahead on vote percentage in the last elections, it would take a very huge swing away to defeat it. And with Vijay taking both DMK and AIADMK votes, his presence may help DMK more than it harms the ruling regime,” Shekhar added.

Both Paneerselvam, who quit NDA few weeks before, and Dhinakaran have hinted that they may opt to go with Actor Vijay.