What Does High Voter Turnout in Phase 1 Mean for Bihar — Nitish or Tejashwi? News24 –
Bihar assembly elections 2025: Thursday, November 6, 2025, will be remembered as a significant day in Bihar’s history. Nearly 3.6 million more voters turned out to cast their votes in the first phase of the Assembly elections, triggering discussion in the political circles about what Bihar’s verdict will be when the ballots are counted on November 14. What does this massive turnout reveal about Bihar? How did neighbouring states respond when they experienced a similar surge in voter participation? Here’s a look back and an analysis..
Bihar Assembly election Phase 1
Bihar assembly elections 2025: The first phase of the Bihar Assembly elections concluded on Thursday with remarkable voter enthusiasm across 121 constituencies. The turnout stood at 64.69%, nearly 8% higher than in 2020 — the highest ever recorded in the first phase of Bihar’s electoral history. In comparison, voter turnout was 56.1% in 2020, 55.9% in 2015, and 52.1% in 2010.
Bihar Assembly polls: What does the data say?
Bihar assembly elections 2025: In the first phase of this year’s elections, voter participation saw a big jump. About 3.6 million more people cast their votes compared to 2020. Back then, out of 37 million registered voters, 20.6 million had voted, with a turnout of around 55.68%. This year, the voter list grew by another 500,000 to reach 37.5 million, and 24.2 million people turned up at the polling booths, taking the turnout to an impressive 64.69%.
What does the higher turnout in Bihar mean?
As the state awaits the second phase on November 11, discussions have begun among political circles and analysts about whom Bihar has voted for and what the ‘Janata’ truly wants on November 14. Is the higher voter turnout a sign of anti-incumbency or pro-incumbency?
If we look back at the history of Indian elections, we find some interesting patterns showing that higher voter turnout has often led to a change in the ruling government, signalling an anti-incumbency wave. However, there are instances where the high voter turnout has led to support for the ruling government.
High voter turnout- What about other states?
- In the 2010 Bihar Assembly elections, a 6.82% increase in the vote share ultimately led to the return of the Janata Dal (United) coalition to power.
- In 2023, Madhya Pradesh saw a 77% voter turnout, a 2.08 percentage point increase from the previous election, and the BJP retained its government.
- In Odisha, 74% voter turnout was recorded in 2014, an 8.35 percentage point increase from the previous election. Despite this, the ruling BJD made a comeback.
- In Gujarat, the 2012 elections saw an 15% increase in the vote share, which ultimately led to the return of the then-Chief Minister Narendra Modi’s government.
So, all these facts show that the high voter turnout cannot be considered mainly as anti-incumbency.
Where higher voter turnout led to Government change
- In 2023, Rajasthan recorded a 75.45% voter turnout, an increase of about 0.73 percent from the previous election, resulting in Congress’s defeat.
- In 2011, Tamil Nadu recorded a 7.19% higher voter turnout. This resulted in the defeat of the ruling DMK alliance and the rise of the AIADMK alliance to power.
- In the 2012 Uttar Pradesh elections, voter turnout was 13.44% higher. The then-ruling BSP was defeated, and the Samajwadi Party came to power.
In Assembly elections, a high voter turnout often reflects a united effort by a particular section of society- either to support the government or to bring about change. It could be the result of Gen Z awakening or the collective resolve of women coming together to stand up for a cause.
Both the Grand Alliance and the NDA made significant promises to attract women voters. Since 2005, women have been a key support base for Nitish Kumar, especially after initiatives like the bicycle scheme and liquor prohibition. However, it’s too early to predict anything.
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