COVID-19: This dip in growth rate is quite interesting
NEW DELHI: A statistical analysis of active coronavirus cases has revealed a significant decline in reproductive number of SARS CoV 2 virus in India, possibly due to the lockdown and social distancing.
The factor to arrive at how many people could catch a disease from a single infected person in a population that hasn’t been exposed to the disease before, is R0, also called R-naught. If R0 is below one, the epidemic eventually would die out. Above one, it keeps growing, possibly exponentially.
An analysis by the Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Chennai showed that R0 for the novel coronavirus was 1.83 from March 5 to April 5 in India but dipped to 1.53 from April 6 to April 13. Globally, R0 for SARS CoV 2 has been between 2 and 4.“A close analysis of the R0 graph pattern suggests that there has been a statistically significant lowering of the rate at which the number of cases has been growing,” said Sitabhra Sinha who led the team of analysts.